Ransomware headlines increasingly describe falling payment rates and smaller median ransoms, which can look like progress.
Underneath those numbers, a growing share of incidents never involve an encryptor at all: attackers steal data and threaten to publish it.
This article explains how data extortion ransomware works, what recent figures from Verizon, Coveware and CISA show, why file-transfer platforms and managed service providers are favoured targets, and how to detect and respond to exfiltration-only attacks.
Classic ransomware encrypted files and demanded payment for a decryptor. Double extortion added data theft before encryption, so victims with good backups still faced a leak threat.
Encryptionless ransomware drops the encryption step entirely and keeps only the theft and the threat.
The shift is documented in government advisories. The joint CISA, FBI and ACSC advisory on BianLian (AA23-136A, updated November 2024) states the FBI observed the group move primarily to exfiltration-based extortion around January 2023, and ACSC saw an exclusive shift around January 2024 (CISA/FBI/ACSC, 2024).
The same advisory lists exfiltration via FTP, Rclone and Mega.
Several independent datasets point in the same direction: more incidents, lower payment rates, and extortion based on stolen data becoming routine.
| Finding | Source (year) |
|---|---|
| Ransomware present in 44% of breaches, up from 32% | Verizon DBIR executive summary (2025) |
| Median ransom paid fell to $115,000 from $150,000; 64% of victims did not pay | Verizon DBIR (2025) |
| Only 23% of victims paid in Q3 2025; just 19% in data exfiltration-only cases | Coveware data via Security Affairs (2025) |
| Third-party involvement in breaches doubled to 30% | Verizon DBIR (2025) |
Lower payment rates are good news, but they also push groups towards volume. When fewer victims pay, attackers compensate by hitting more organisations at once through shared software or service providers.
The Verizon figure on third-party involvement is the clearest sign of that trend. Our 2025 ransomware recap covers the major incidents behind these numbers.
Not every group has abandoned encryption, and some reporting suggests a partial swing back where data-only extortion pays poorly. Treat encryptionless attacks as an additional playbook rather than a full replacement.
A falling payment rate measures attacker revenue, not victim harm. An organisation that refuses to pay still faces breach notification, regulatory scrutiny, litigation and the publication of sensitive data.
For security leaders, the more useful metric is how many incidents involved confirmed data loss, and how quickly that loss was detected.
The most efficient data extortion campaigns exploit one vulnerability in widely used software, steal data from hundreds of organisations, and send extortion emails in bulk. No lateral movement or encryption is needed.
In ATT&CK terms these campaigns lean on T1190 (Exploit Public-Facing Application), T1567.002 (Exfiltration to Cloud Storage) and T1657 (Financial Theft), rather than T1486 (Data Encrypted for Impact).
Managed service providers hold privileged remote access to many customers. Compromising one RMM platform gives an attacker a path into every downstream client. The 2021 Kaseya VSA incident showed this with REvil ransomware pushed through MSP tooling.
The same route works for data theft. In 2025, CISA advisory AA25-163A warned that ransomware actors were exploiting unpatched SimpleHelp RMM (CVE-2024-57727) to reach a utility billing software provider and its customers. An RMM agent already has file access, so pulling data out requires no extra tools.
Without encryption, the first sign of an attack is often the ransom note in a CEO’s inbox. Detection has to move earlier, to staging and transfer of data.
The following illustrative hunting logic, written as pseudo-KQL, flags Rclone and similar tools and unusual outbound volume from servers:
// Process indicators: sync tools on servers
DeviceProcessEvents
| where FileName in~ (“rclone.exe”,”rclone”,”megacmd.exe”,”winscp.com”,”restic.exe”)
or ProcessCommandLine has_any (“copy remote:”, “sync “, “–transfers”, “mega:”)
| where DeviceName in (ServerList)
// Volume indicator: outbound bytes far above baseline
NetworkFlows
| summarize out_bytes = sum(BytesSent) by SrcHost, DstDomain, bin(Timestamp, 1h)
| join kind=inner (Baseline_30d) on SrcHost
| where out_bytes > 10 * p95_hourly_out
| where DstDomain !in (ApprovedBackupDestinations)
Tune the thresholds to your environment. The aim is to alert on a file server sending tens of gigabytes to a new cloud storage domain at 03:00, which is exactly the behaviour BianLian-style actors exhibit.
Rclone deserves special attention because it is a legitimate administration tool, so simple hash blocking is not enough.
Look for it running from unusual folders such as ProgramData or user Music directories, for config files containing cloud storage credentials, and for command lines with high –transfers values.
A short allow-list of hosts permitted to run sync tools makes the remaining alerts far easier to triage.
For layered endpoint controls, see our guide to stopping endpoint data exfiltration.
If you are choosing tooling, compare commercial and open source observability tools on how well they retain and query high-volume network and application logs, since exfiltration hunting depends on that history.
Incident response changes when nothing is encrypted. There is no outage forcing a decision, but legal and notification clocks may already be running.
Policy around AI and cyber operations is also moving quickly; reporting on government handling of advanced AI models suggests defenders’ actions may soon be shaped by new rules. Keep legal and policy teams in the loop when you update response playbooks.
| Control | Why it matters for data extortion | Framework reference |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid patching of internet-facing file-transfer, ERP and RMM systems | Removes the mass-exploitation entry point | CIS Controls v8 Control 7; NIST CSF 2.0 ID.RA |
| Egress filtering and allow-listing of cloud storage destinations | Blocks Rclone/Mega exfiltration from servers | CIS Control 13; NIST CSF 2.0 PR.IR |
| Data minimisation and retention limits | Less stored data means less to steal | CIS Control 3; NIST CSF 2.0 PR.DS |
| Phishing-resistant MFA on remote access and MSP accounts | Stops credential-based access | CIS Control 6; NIST CSF 2.0 PR.AA |
| Third-party access review and MSP log sharing | Addresses supply-chain routes | CIS Control 15; NIST CSF 2.0 GV.SC |
It is an attack where criminals steal data and demand payment to avoid publishing or selling it, without encrypting the victim’s systems. It is sometimes called encryptionless ransomware.
No. Double extortion combines encryption with a data-leak threat. Data-only extortion uses the leak threat alone, which makes it quieter and faster to execute.
Backups restore availability but do nothing about stolen data being published. Protection depends on preventing access, detecting exfiltration and minimising the data you hold.
Payment cannot guarantee deletion, and paying may raise sanctions or legal issues. Most guidance, including from law enforcement, discourages payment; any decision should involve counsel and incident responders.
Common methods include Rclone or MEGA clients sending data to cloud storage, FTP, and abuse of legitimate file-transfer or RMM tools already present in the environment.
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